Blog supposes if you are MLB executive, you are perhaps not thrilled about this matchup…

Image via SF Gate

For whatever reason, it’s entirely possible more people would watch World Series with Yankees or Phillies in it.

But fans of Game without horse in race could not have asked for more:

Two teams desperate to break through and win title — with neither sure it will return to such heights any time soon.

Two teams laden with very human stories, long journeys to dark places and  now, now finally chance to come together and make final run.  

Two teams that looked up to Big Boys of baseball and refused to blink.

If American League had won All-Star Game and handed home-field advantage to these very likeable Texas Rangers, you’d have to give them heavy favor. But National League finally busted its slump back in July and, unbeknownst to them at time, preemptively evened playing field for these loveable ‘frisco Giants.

To Royals fans, Mariners fans, fans of Team and others who, year in and year out, find their senses of hope and futility waging epic battle, this World Series matchup says “It’s possible … if you can. just. get. in!”

First this …

Image via Lone Star Ball

Then this …

Image via New York Times

Go Rangers!

This is third year of Superdouble Antifungal Blogself-flagellation as Blog looks back at what Blog was thinking during March when hopes were high and promise of Spring was in air. In other words, this is time when Blog looks back at predictions for 2010 regular season and GRADES THEM.

AL East: Dumb Blog saw Yankees / Boston in playoffs, Team in third, Rays in forth and Toronto last. Bad. Well of course Yankees were going. Mitigating factor was that Boston was hit with innumerable injuries. But Rays were good and Blog was too blind to see it.  Blog has noticed over years that Blog can’t really do AL East in unbiased way. Watch, in 2011 Blog will pick Team to win division. Grade: D

AL Central: Blog did not think Twins would fare well after losing Joe Nathan and Blog also thought Tigers would rebound. That’s not way it turned out in Weak, Weak AL Central where Team could easily contend for playoff berth. Grade: D   

AL West: Blog got on Mariners’ train but did note that the Ms were “relying on two of baseball’s notorious head cases,” which they were, and also said they’d have to find a bat, which they did not. As for Texas, Blog just didn’t see potential that existed in Vladdy / Josh one-two punch and also underrated pitching. Blog’s fault. Grade: F

NL East: Blog picked order of finish exactly. And some of related prognostications were UNCANNY, even about lowly Nats. Grade: A

NL Central: Blog guesses it was somewhat cowardly not to give Reds more schrift in Springtime, but did at least hint at potential. Blog still doesn’t really get how they finished atop division. They’re certainly being exposed in playoffs. Note to Jay Bruce: Catch the fockin ball. Anyway. Grade: C

NL West: Blog saw Rockies taking division flag, but they underperformed though still were in it late. Blog saw Giants making postseason, albeit a pencilling in for Wild Card. Blog underrated Padres (who collapsed), overrated D’Backs and accurately panned Dodgers. Mixed but could have been far worse – certainly nothing to be embarrassed about in terms of logic going in. Grade: B-

POSTSEASONMORTEM: If Blog had teacher, teacher would make Blog take remedial AL West class over Winter. Blog’s grades are bad, overall, but Blog aced a key final, right when it mattered most, and didn’t get kicked out of school. Blog definitely got a note home, though.  Final Grade C- 

Welcome to year four of Blog’s playoff predictor system. You can see last year and year before and even the year before that if you want to.* Overall system has chosen 3 of six correct World Series teams in three years and two of three World Series winners.

Only major change this year is that Blog will not be awarding any certainty points that fall even a smidgeon outside of predetermined parameters, even if a player projects to a point but didn’t play enough.

On offense, a player must have a minimum .295 BA, 30 HRs and 100 RBIs.**

Starting pitchers must have 10 more wins than losses and an ERA of less than 3.00. Closers must have more than 30 saves and an ERA of less than 3.00. 

A team can earn another certainty point if it has 54 or more home wins.

Going team-by-team this year, Blog uncovered a total of 12 certainty points.

That number was subtracted from 100 percent and remainder — 88 percent — was split eight ways and doled evenly as baseline score for each October team. This means certainty baseline for each playoff team is 11% (last year there were more cerrtainty points and baseline was, therefore, lower).

Here’s how Blog doles out 2010 certainty points:

Braves (2) — B. Wagner; 56 home wins … 13%
Giants (1) — B. Wilson … 12%
Phillies (2) —  R. Halladay; 54 home wins … 13%
Rangers (2) — J. Hamilton; N. Feliz  … 13%
Rays (2)  — David Price; Rafael Soriano … 13%
Reds (1) — J. Votto … 12%  
Twins (0) —  11%
Yankees (2) —   R. Cano; M. Rivera … 13% 

Here are the raw seedings:

1-5 tie: Braves, Phillies, Rangers, Rays, Yankees
6,7 tie: Giants, Reds
8: Twins

Here are adjusted seedings, using regular season records as tiebreakers*** for raw seedings above:

1) Phillies
2) Rays
3) Yankees
4) Braves
5) Rangers
6) Giants
7) Reds
8 ) Twins  

Here are your divsion series winners, based on this formula:

Phillies; Braves; Rays; Yankees

And your World Series outcome:

Phillies over Rays    (sound famliar?)

Keep in mind this system isn’t necessary supposed to pick locks. It is supposed to be an acknowledgement that October baseball is a bit random while still respecting key factors that could affect outcome of playoffs.

* if you are really crazy dedicated, you’ll see that the system has changed a little over the years around edges but overall it is same

** This year, for example, among other near-misses: E. Longoria missed with a .294 BA despite qualifying on HRs and RBI; C.C. Sabathia missed with a 3.18 ERA despite having a gawdy win-loss record and V. Guerrero missed with 24 HRs despite qualifying on BA and RBIs; Twins miss out on point with “only” 53 home wins. Blog had also handed out certainty points to managers a couple of times in past but that didn’t appear to make any sense so that’s over  

*** Blog has yet to require a 2nd tiebreak; it would be home field in given series