2k11 divisiOnal preview — AL East

Posted in 2011 predictiOns on March 23rd, 2011 by The Wayward O

Baltimore Orioles -Zach Britton isn’t even on depth chart. See you in June. A spring of injury angst tentatively turning out to be just that. Looks like new infield will be up in Baltimore for opening day. Can Mark Reynolds improve ability to make contact with baseball? Can Luke Scott hold down left field?  Rest is up to pitchers. Improved bullpen and infield and real bench makes Team of Blog real-ish Team this year.

Boston Red Sox -They have Jon Papelbon angst in Beantown. But they added Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler. They’ve added Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. Dustin Pedroia is healthy again and having a good spring. Except for fifth starter Daisuke Matzusaka (hardly cause to lose sleep) Boston has a major dearth of question marks, on paper at least. Can Jarrod Saltalamacchia get into 100+ games at catcher? When will David Ortiz REALLY get old?

New York Yankees -They had a weird offseason that was redolent of old Steinbrenner days. They have question marks in starting rotation, among them whether A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes amount to two reliable starters. Ivan Nova had a nice spring but Sergio Mitre looks like meat. Lineup is still fierce. How long is Curtis Granderson’s injury going to last? Can Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Russell Martin keep selves in lineup? Is Jorge Posada going to handle non-catcher role gracefully? This whole thing could melt down, man. Or not.

Tampa Bay Rays -You’ve heard it all spring: Rays are STILL GOOD despite losing more talent than any other team in MLB. Rays had easy time replacing departed Jason Bartlett by moving Sean Rodriguez to second base and giving super sub Reid Brignac keys at shortstop. Dan Johnson’s ability to contribute at first base, however, is less certain and they likely will miss Carlos Pena’s power. Also they’ll greatly miss Carl Crawford despite possibility of Johnny Damon mitigating loss. All that could be handled, maybe, but for real damage to rotation with departure of Matt Garza and to relief corps with well-publicized departure of ENTIRE BULLPEN. Look at numbers Rafael Soriano, Dan Wheeler, Joaquin Benoit put up in 2010 and you can’t help wonder how they cope. What’s Manny gonna do at DH?

Toronto Blue Jays – Coming back with talented top three starters in Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil and Brandon Morrow. Couple three question marks at back of rote. Sporting something of youth movement with Yunel Escobar and Jose Bautista in and Alex Gonzalez and Vernon Wells gone. Can new center fielder Rajai Davis key powerful offense from leadoff spot? Will homer happy Jays do small ball this year? Big turnover in bullpen with putative young closer Frank Francisco and Octavio Dotel both hurt and Scott Downs and Kevin Gregg gone. But, in Anaheim, Downs is hurt and Gregg’s effectiveness is in doubt in Baltimore so maybe Toronto dodged a couple bullets and put together a masterfully crafty offseason. Even departed starter Shaun Marcum is hurt.

Predicted Order of Finish:
Red Sox aren’t going to be in last place
Orioles and Yankees aren’t going to be in first place
epic pigpile with built-in playoff gravitas

2k11 divisiOnal preview — AL Central

Posted in 2011 predictiOns on March 22nd, 2011 by The Wayward O

Chicago White Sox -Mark Kotsay has been replaced by Adam Dunn in what could be history’s most dramatic DH upgrade. Blog wonders if ‘Nerk will let Dunny play some in field. Dunny likes him some first base time. As usual, White Sox operate under a cloud of confusion – Is Brent Morel playing third base? Is Mark Teahen an outfielder? Is Jake Peavy ’shut down’?  Etc. For this reason its nearly impossible to predict whether Ozzie’s squad will flame out or take division going away. Also Bobby Jenks and J.J. Putz are gone, leaving Matt Thornton, who certainly has paid his dues, in closer role.

Cleveland Indians -Middle infield is very Cabrera heavy with Asdrubal at shortstop and Orlando at second base. Fair enough. Lack of depth in starting rotation dooms Tribe to another sub-.500 season. Hey, get used to it; metamarket squads can languish a decade or more, 13 years even, before they find right pitching combo and regain steam, uh, Blog has heard. Fausto Carmona could bring talent haul in trade. They owe DH Travis Hafner $26 million over next two years. Maybe if they’re lucky Pronk starts strong and they can move him, too. What?

Detroit Tigers - Tigers have what looks like a fearsome starting five (including Phil Coke, who Blog predicts will do pretty well once they get around to actually slotting him in) and, with addition of DH/C Victor Martinez, plenty of offense to go along with it. Miguel Cabrera thing happened. It was bad. Maybe it’s not over with his fuckups. With Carlos Guillen heading for DL, and, Blog allows, slowly circling proverbial baseball drain, can Will Rhymes seize opportunity at second base?

Kansas City Royals -New squad from last year capped by Zack Greinke for Alcides Escobar trade. Can free agent Jeff Francis bounce back after essentially losing season and a half to arm surgery? Even if Powder Blue overperforms, they’re still looking pack middle at best.

Minnesota Twins - Will this be year Twins get buried under April blizzard?Doesn’t matter, they have 17 away games first month and two homestands with built-in off days. 15 of those away games are against AL East. Maybe they’ll be buried under standings but, like snows of April, it won’t last. Jim Thome listed as second behind Jason Kubel on DH depth chart?  Jimmer isn’t gonna take a shine to that. Not one bit. Pitching depth leaves Puntoless Twins in catbird seat in possible Francisco Liriano trade.

Predicted order of finish:
Tigers, Twins in flat-footed tie
with play-in loser going home
after 18-inning epic struggle
White Sox
Royals
Indians

2k11 divisiOnal preview — AL West

Posted in 2011 predictiOns on March 20th, 2011 by The Wayward O

Los Angeles* Angels -Scott Kazmir might be done. Scott Shields retired. Kendrys Morales still can’t run full speed after May 29 celebratory leg-break. Also dorkosphere has spent better part of last six weeks howling about acquisition of Vernon Wells (and his remaining contract obligations) for Juan Rivera and Mike Napoli. They’re probably right. But you know what Anaheim’s real problem is? Is they’ve sort of got a real division to deal with now; Rangers and As amount to proverbial rock in high-budget Disney princess’s four-team-thick mattress.

Oakland Athletics -Will have to settle with Crushin’ Russian Kevin Kouzmanoff at third base after failing to sign Adrian Beltre. Why did Kouzmanoff turn in career lows in BA, OBP and slugging as soon as he got to cavernous, largely empty Coliseum? Same reason Trevor Cahill posted a 2.97 ERA — the place is foul. Can new DH Hideki reach the upper decky? If so there won’t be anyone to pick up da ball. One thing about Matsui, he’s MONEYBALL!

Seattle Mariners -Desperate for power after last year when departed Russell Branyan led club with 15 home runs, Mariners signed free agent Jack Cust, who is showing some pop this spring. (As of today Blog thinks it might be actual spring.) Mariners are giving keys at first base to Justin Smoak, who may also help relieve their offensive woes. Hey is that Erik Bedard at No. 4 in rotation? He’s had  decent spring so far! Give it time. If Milton Bradley and Josh Wilson both put together respectable seasons Seattle has shot at .500. It ain’t gonna happen though.

Texas Rangers - They’re not going to miss departure of Cliff Lee. They dissed Michael Young though; this could be a potential clubhouse issue because Texas doesn’t appear to be able to move Young. If Neftali Feliz ends up in starting rotation, who closes? Blog would leave things be but Blog is just Blog and Nolan Ryan says Feliz looks “starterish.” Is MOUND PRESENCE a stat? What about CLUBHOUSE COHESION?? Blog is making a Ryan-esque, hunch-based prediction: Texas will struggle this year (relatively speaking) and open the door for … Oakland!

Predicted Order of Finish:
As
Rangers †
Angels
Mariners

* of Anaheim
† in playoff mix

2k11 divisiOnal preview — NL East

Posted in 2011 predictiOns on March 19th, 2011 by The Wayward O

Atlanta Braves - Billy Wagner, either tired of baseball or unhappy because last year on his deal is, in his mind, too cheap at $6.5 million, seems to have retired. But from what Blog reads, Wagner hasn’t made it official. Can young Craig Kimbrel fill in void left by Wagner’s putative departure?Otherwise solid Braves are intact and sporting nice mix of veteran and young talent. They’ll make run at Phillies. They’ll fall short. They have a kid named Freddie Freeman at first base, too, who is apt to eclipse 2010 numbers put up by Troy Glaus, who also kinda sorta retired. Unlike Wagner however, Glaus isn’t still lurking on Atlanta’s 40-man.

Florida Marlins -Always seem to overperform in way that should make other teams, say Team from Baltimore, envious. 2011 version has added Javier Vasquez to group of solid starters including Josh Johnson and Anibel Sanchez. They also made very serviceable move by getting Omar Infante and Mike Dunn from Braves for Dan Uggla. But Marlins’ young outfield has been plagued by injuries this spring. Who is going to replace the power void left by departure of Uggla?

New York Mets -On March 12, 2009, when Wayward O, in real-life job capacity, witnessed Bernard L. Madoff cop to biggest Ponzi blowout ever in NYC federal court, he had no inkling of how queasy Mets owner Fred Wilpon must have felt. Now trustee responsible for clawing back Ponzi loot says Mets brass pocketed $700 million in funny money. Wow. That could make comedy of errors in Los Angeles look insignificant. That and a lack of pitching — injured Johan Santana, who may or may not play this year, is listed as No. 1 on depth chart?!?— plus raft of very well-publicized personnel issues make Mets a distracted organization that likely won’t be anywhere near playoffs this year. Yet there is still a ton of talent in lineup and on defense, put together during Ponzi years, so Blog guesses they won’t completely bottom out (until guys start demanding trades). In Ike Davis and Angel Pagan, Mets fans at least have some hope for future. 

Philadelphia Phillies -2010 vintage, 97-win ballclub brought in Cliff Lee for World Series repeat charge alongside Roy Oswalt and rest. Oswalt had rough couple starts in early spring but appears to have righted things of late. Also some rumblings over possible “lack of pop” on offense but this doesn’t seem pressing even though its unlikely Ben Francisco will replace output of departing Jason Werth. Is it too much to ask that Phils bring up Tuffy Gosewisch as third catcher? They could hawk cheese steak Gosewiches at park.

Washington Nationals -Beltway Bombers have turned things over quite a bit. With Adam Dunn done gone they’ve sort of replaced his massive output with addition of Jason Werth. Young Danny Espinosa gets keys at second base. Nats hopes for .500 season rest on healthy Jason Marquis making 30 starts and turning in quality effort. Will Stephen Strasburg return to pitch this year? Sorry, but that is only real question.

Predicted order of finish:
Phillies
Braves
Marlins *
Nats *
Mets *

* pigpile

2k11 divisiOnal preview — NL Central

Posted in 2011 predictiOns on March 17th, 2011 by The Wayward O

Chicago Cubs – Marlon Byrd is mentoring guys. New manager Mike Quade is being honest with guys and keepin’ guys loose. Except for Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Silva, two guys who are not so loose. Phil Rogers of Chicago Tribune wrote “Cubs front office privately viewed even that dugout incident as part of a healthy spring.” And you think they spin in Washington. Baby Cub Starlin Castro hit .300 in 125 games at shortstop last season amid general chaos. Wouldn’t it be fun if he were an All Star? Pack Middle.

Cincinnati Reds – They’re bringing whole Rosey Rouge Ruddy Red gang back, er, except for shortstop Orlando Cabrera. If you’re a Reds fan, you’re pumped about this season. Reds cruise to division win and a couple three dramas will play out: Can Joey Votto keep up sick offensive pace? Can Brandon Phillips keep his cool? Can Aroldis Chapman crack starting rotation? #winning

Houston Astros – Lead league in Bretts. Brett Wallace looks to be  promising first baseman with pop. Brett Myers looks to get ball opening day with “ace” Wandy Rodriguez not looking ready. Houston also is working Carlos Lee at first base, presumably in effort to get Brian Bogusevic some starts in left field. As they head toward bottom ranks of standings, will ‘Stros also lead league in brawls?

Milwaukee Brewers – “Went for it” by trading prized young shortstop Alcides Escobar for Zack Greinke, who spent offseason telling reporters he doesn’t give a shit about baseball and who showed up in camp with a cracked rib. Greinke gets a lot of deference in baseball circles, but he might really just be a spoiled brat. Also Corey Hart may not be ready for opening day. Oh, and Shaun Marcum has “shoulder tightness.” Frustrating season likely in offing for Milwaukee. On top of everything else Crew fans get to watch Yuniesky Betancourt (he’s playing at 95 percent!) try to field grounders all year. Can new manager Ron Roenicke keep wheels from coming off? If he can, and they sniff playoffs, he’s a lock for M.o.t.Y. Whatever, Packers won Super Bowl.

Pittsburgh PiratesStink. Will Andrew McCutchen and Lyle Overbay get in dugout shoving match? It could happen.

St. Louis Cardinals – Yesterday Chris Carpenter climbed up on bump, pitched, fielded and Albert Pujols connected for Grand Slam. What’s all the fuss about? Oh yea, the Adam Wainwright thing. No problem! Free agent Jake Westbrook picks up a little slack; healthy Kyle Lohse picks up a little slack; Tony LaRussa lights some vanilla-scented candles and sips a nice chard, which rhymes with Wild Card.

Predicted order of finish:
Reds
Cardinals*
Cubs
Brewers
Astros
Pirates

* wild card contender