How can Blog know so much about a division, following it endlessly, yet find it so impossible to predict? It has to do with undying hope that Orioles will over-perform … and one of these days they will. Blue Jays could be surprising this year but solid Rays team is unlikely to surprise anybody.

Baltimore Orioles - Team improved rotation depth, so much so that Zach Britton, who is injured, and Brian Matusz — two of 2011’s hopes — may not see nearly as much Big League action. They got younger at first base and DH, where last year they relied on aged veterans who did not add to winning formula. They’ve shown little stomach for serious free agent acquisitions that could compliment on-board talent. Can starting corps “step up,” as J.J. Hardy has put it, and give home run happy offense chance to compete? BONUS QUESTION: Hey Nicky Markakis, what up? Also, Blog speaks for all Orioles nation when it says: Please be good at baseball, Nolan Reimold.

Boston Red Sox – Too much uncertainty to ticket them into playoffs with any conviction — this despite return of MLB’s most prodigious offense. Can bullpen stalwart Daniel Bard handle himself in starting five? Just one of many questions about Boston’s rotation once you get past impressive top two. Biggest question of all — not just one for 2012 — is this BONUS QUESTION: Who will end up boss of Red Sox nation after departure of Theo Epstein? Potential for chaos in Boston this year is high with Bobby V at helm. No John Lackey though – so presumably less fried chicken and Clubhouse Braus.

New York Yankees - Is A-Rod ready for long season? One could see injuries felling all or part of traveling All-Stars’ starting corps but they’ve hired suitable veteran backups in ongoing use of vast war chest to  deprive competitors of bring in talent. They’re probably good for 90-plus wins but they won’t be unstoppable. There could be weak spots in rotation allegedly featuring Hiroki Kuroda, Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes and Michael Pineda but, again, there is backup.

Tampa Bay Rays - Low-payroll Rays punch above their weight and have managed to bring back preponderance of playoff 2011 squad plus home run hitting additions of Carlos Pena at first base and Luke Scott at DH. Can young Matt Moore bottle up recent October magic in starting rotation? Depth of Rays’ starting corps will take pressure off of Moore, which will augment his chances. These guys have potential to throttle AL East.

Toronto Blue Jays - Young Henderson Alvarez is talk of Jays camp. He’ll join injury-prone Dustin McGowan and Brett Cecil as a third question mark in rotation behind  Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow. Right fielder Jose Bautista is hitting home runs again this spring, natch. Can golden child Colby Rasmus live up to long years of top billing as super prospect whilst patrolling center field in Great White North? Dunno, but Colby says he has new lease on game and gives himself credit for being awesome. Jays are 20-4 in spring games. That’s impressive even if spring games don’t matter much.

Predicted Order of Finish
No idea but if you put gun to Blog’s head: Rays
Unclear *
Murky*
Very shaky on this one
Maybe, just maybe, somebody in last besides Orioles

* Wild Card mix

Blog doesn’t see a Wild Card team coming out of this division.

Chicago White Sox - Adam Dunn appears to be hitting. If he reverts to pre-2011 form then 2011 will go down as one of those baseball mysteries. Juan Pierre and Gordon Beckham are gone but PaleHose see young Dayan Viciedo and Alejandro De Aza as future of north side outfield. Kosuke Fukudome serves as insurance policy. They haven’t solved closer issue and new manager Robin Ventura doesn’t appear to be in hurry. Jake Peavy is apparently healthy again, can he pitch them into contention? Departures of Mark Buerhle and Edwin Jackson give this question extra weight, as does uncertain future of rotation candidate Chris Sale.

Cleveland Indians - Travis Hafner and Casey Kotchman, two players trying to beat injuries, are having good at-bats this spring. They’re giving Tribe hope that reputation for being solid offensive club may be restored in 2012. They’re taking gamble on aging Derek Lowe and Derek is having success in Cactus League games. If they hit trifecta with these three veterans, they’ll have decent showing. But will Indians fans be crying in their beers this summer as they watch stat line of Rockies’ Drew Pomeranz, who they gave up for Ubaldo Jimenez? Ubaldo isn’t looking great and there are concerns about his health.

Detroit Tigers - They’ve shown ruthless baseball acumen in recent years, refusing to overpay for Curtis Granderson and refusing to keep Magglio Ordonez around. It’s paid off. Now they’ve addressed rotation depth with addition of Doug Fister, who will join Max Scherzer. Scherzer is having a fantastic March by all accounts. And there’s that other guy whose name escapes Blog. Ver… Verhampton? Verstenstein? Remember when Mike Francesa thought Al Alburquerque was a fake person? That was awesome. There are fake people in this division (see: Carmona, Fausto) but not on Detroit. Speaking of fake, that’s not a real question. Detroit blew this division away in 2011 and this year they’re likely to do the same. Blog sees big years from Delmon Young and Ryan Raburn.

Kansas City Royals - They seem to have made right move in extending Alicides Escobar. They’re depending on a lot of young guys — like Lorenzo Cain in center field and Eric Hosmer at first base — to play competitive baseball. And that might happen. Problem is, Powder Blues don’t have a credible starting rotation and, with season-ending Joakim Soria injury, they don’t have closer either.  Can Jonathan Sanchez and 23-year-old Danny Duffy deliver them from a summer of 8-6 losses? Maybe. Remember: Walks will kill ya and kids like Duffy don’t get corner calls against Yankees.

Minnesota Twins - Francisco Liriano has been “all but untouchable this spring,” according to a recent MLB.com account. Joe Mauer allegedly is all-systems-go as well. Even Justin Morneau appears to be shaking off concussion cobwebs.  Would it be enough if all three came back strong? It might be enough for Wild Card run. But departures of Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young and Jim Thome have created additional questions about outfield and DH roles and, of course, Twins haven’t as of yet shown ability to win outside of Baggie Dome.

Predicted Order of Finish
Tigers
White Sox
Twins
Royals
Indians

Next year Houston is crashing this party … NO MORE FREE RIDES YOU GUYS! But this year it’s still easy street.

Los Angeles Angels - Look at these guys! Albert Pujols at first base is going to pump up offense and so is likely return of Kendrys Morales. You can bet Angels will have comical celebration at home plate teed up if and when Kendrys walks off.  Maybe he’ll crawl in. Maybe they’ll carry him over home plate. Halos also upgraded at catcher with trade for Chris Iannetta and added C.J. Wilson to already decent starting corps. What are they going to do with Bobby Abreu if Morales really is ready for full-time DH role? Blog can’t picture Bobby sulking on bench all year but also it’s hard to image a lot of suitors, yet Blog could  picture him coming in very handy in October, which is where this team is headed. Angels also hope to find at-bats for young would-be star Mike Trout.

Oakland As - Have put together a potentially great outfield, with Yoenis Cespedes in center, Coco Crisp moving to left and Josh Reddick in right. But Scott Sizemore’s popped ACL has thrown them out of wack and now they’re looking at starting unproven guys at third base and first base as well. Uncertainty in infield and moves to ship starters Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill and Guillermo Moscoso — as well as closer Andrew Bailey — out of town has these As looking like an also-ran. Can putative starting first baseman Brandon Allen translate big numbers in minors to success in majors? Hint: He hasn’t so far.

Seattle Mariners - Seattle feels so confident about its four young starters that it sent “can’t miss” rotation prospect Michael Pineda to Yankees for catcher / DH Jesus Montero. Pineda, according to Jon Heyman of CBS, however, is “the fellow with the pedestrian radar-gun readings around 90 mph and slight paunch.” Did Mariners just fleece Yankees? Let’s hope so for SchadenfrOide’s sake. Otherwise Seattle is looking at a lot of continuity, which Blog typically sees as good thing. BONUS QUESTION: Can Montero help lift Seattle’s horrible offense? Last year Mariner RBI leader was catcher Miguel Olivo … with 62! That’s beyond atrocious. Nobody on 2011 vintage hit 20 home runs either. Offensive challenges likely to keep them in third place this year — after all Montero is only a rookie — but if Rangers slip badly Mariners could find themselves in second.

Texas Rangers - It got real bad this off-season with Josh Hamilton and it’s unclear if Rangers want to bet on his future. But Rangers also made one of biggest splashes with signing of Yu Darvish, who is having a good spring. Signing of Joe Nathan for closer finally paved way for Neftali Feliz to move into rotation. But both Nathan and Feliz are having what you would call “rusty” spring sessions. Don’t know why but Blog doesn’t fully trust these Rangers. Of course Blog said same thing last year and they Texas two-stepped their way to World Series. Can Matt Harrison repeat his breakout performance from 2011?

Predicted Order of Finish
Angels
Rangers*
Mariners
As

* Wild Card mix

This division could lead Majors in intrigue! But there can only be one division winner! Who will it be? Blog is taking a hard look.

Atlanta Braves - Departure of Alex Gonzalez has left intrigue at shortstop as would-be rookies Tyler Pastornicki and Andrelton Simmons battle for a berth. Elsewhere Da Boys of Chop mostly are coming back — even 83-year-old Chipper Jones — and they are going to be intent on not letting season slip away like it did during final moments of 2011. Addition of Michael Bourn in center field will help. Mike Minor, who will replace Derek Lowe in rotation, is having a lights-out spring. Will Jason Heyward recover to re-assume mantle of awesomness? BONUS QUESTION: If Braves underperform, will manager Fredi Gonzalez get canned? You Betcha.

Miami Marlins - New logo. New name. New manager. New shortstop. New closer. New ace for rotation if you count return of Josh Johnson from injury. But that’s not all … how about a new No. 2 starter in Mark Buerhle? How about a newly spiritual Carlos Zambrano, who appears destined for a rotation spot. Miami is MLB’s leader in new, right down to stadium fish tanks. Even their right fielder has a new name: He’s Giancarlo now, not Mike. Blog wishes they’d renamed themselves the Miami Cicadas, after elusive bug that shows up every few years to dominate landscape. Can Ozzie keep Big Z on rails; can Ozzie keep Ozzie on rails? There’s just no way to know. To the last, Blog grapples with thee!

New York Mets – Amazins moved in fences and settled Ponzi debts. But word on street is they’re fielding squad of louts who won’t win many ballgames. And yet Blog sees talent here — remnants of newly ended spending spree if you will — who can play, including Jason Bay (admittedly fading), Andres Torres (light hitter) and David Wright. They’re unlikely to compete in super-charged division but, if Johan Santana makes unlikely full return to previous form, then you never know (at least until they trade him). Even with fences tucked in, who is supplying power? Aside to Orioles fans: Center fielder Adam Loewen, who is traveling the Rick Ankiel route, apparently has shot at a roster spot.

Philadelphia Phillies - Roy Halladay says rumors he’s hurt are horse pucky. That’s a good thing because reports Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are hurt are most definitely not horse pucky. Can Phillies contend without Howard’s power and Utley’s .344 OBP? It will be far tougher. Rookie Freddy Galvis, Utley’s replacement, and Ty Wigginton, Howard’s sub whose defense at first base is suspect at best, don’t exactly represent equal fill-in talent. Departures of Raul Ibanez and Roy Oswalt don’t change equation that much in Blog’s opinion but there’s yet another question mark: Jonathan Papelbon at closer trying to match departed Ryan Madson and his 2.37 ERA. Phils are likely to step back but they won division by 13 games so it might not matter.

Washington Nationals - Nats’ rote can compete with anybody. Nats have a proven closer, a good bullpen, they have power in their lineup and they play defense.  Many say stuff to effect of “they’re not quite ready yet.” Well Blog is here to tell you different: Nats are ready. Nats are headed for October. What could stop them? If Mike Morse can’t get into lineup this year. If Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche drag down lineup. If Nats mismanage Stephen Strasburg situation and create issues in clubhouse. But make no mistake: building time is over. One thing, Nats: keep John Lannan. Dude is true blue DC baseball.

Predicted Order of Finish
Nats! †
Phillies *
Marlins *
Braves *
Mets

* Wild Card mix; most of this division stays in contention until late
† This is almost definitely a bad pick since obviously Marlins are winning this division